Корелацията изразява степен на зависимост между две променливи. Когато промяната в едната променлива е съпроводена с промяната на другата променлива, имаме корелационна зависимост между двете. Корелацията обаче е необходимо, но недостатъчно условие за доказване на причинно-следствена връзка [1].

С други думи, причинно-следствената връзка между две променливи изисква задължително наличие на корелация между тях, НО наличието на корелация не гарантира присъствие на причинно-следствена връзка. Корелацията дава само основание за създаване на хипотеза за съществуването на връзка между две променливи, която се проверява по емпиричен път чрез контролирани изследвания [1].

Пример#1: Съществува положителна корелация между консумацията на млечни продукти и нивата на остеопороза в развитите държави. При проверяване на тази хипотеза в контролираните експерименти обаче се установява, че млечните продукти притежават само ползи по отношение на здравето на костите. Това води до отхвърляне на причинно-следствена връзка между тези две променливи.

Пример#2: Увеличаването на броя пушачи води до увеличаване на смъртните случаи от рак на белите дробове, но  това отново не доказва, че едното е причина за другото. При провеждане на многобройни епидемиологични изследвания обаче, учените доказват, че пушенето на цигари наистина причинява рак на белите дробове. Така те потвърждават хипотезата за наличие на причинно-следствена връзка, създадена от корелационната зависимост, и вадят заключение, че пушенето може наистина да причини рак на белите дробове.

Представените долу примери представляват положителна корелационна зависимост между две променливи, при които обаче липсва причинно-следствена връзка. Въпреки че научните изследвания отхвърлят хипотезата, че едното може да е причина за другото, заложеното желание на хората да се построи именно такава ясна причинно-следствена връзка между две събития става честа причина за създаване на напълно погрешни заключения.

#1# “Колкото по-често пия хранителни добавки за отслабване, толкова повече отслабвам. Следователно хранителните добавки за отслабване са ефективни.”

#2# “С напредването на медицината хората стават все по-болни. Следователно напредъка на медицината всъщност не прави хората по-здрави, а по-болни.”

#3# “Ваксинациите се увеличават, а с това и броя на децата с аутизъм. Следователно ваксините са причина за аутизма.”

#4# “Когато правя кардио на гладно отслабвам. Следователно кардиото на гладно изгаря повече мазнини.”

Източници:

[1] “Слочаенос? Не мисла! Разликата между корелация и причинно-следствена връзка.” nauka.offnews.bg, [online] <http://nauka.offnews.bg/news/Skeptik_3/Slochaenos-Ne-misla_8442.html>

“Разпространението на аутизма остава непроменено в последните 20 години.” Sciencebasedmedicine.org, [online] <https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/autism-prevalence-unchanged-in-20-years/>

“Корелацията не доказва причинно-следствена връзка” bb-team.org, [online] <https://www.bb-team.org/articles/4921_korelaciata-ne-dokazva-prichinno-sledstvena-vruzka>

Categories: Science

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armnami · June 9, 2022 at 6:23 pm

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