💁‍♂Склонността за потвърждаване (на английски: confirmation bias) представлява предразположението на хората да дават предимство точно на онази информация, която потвърждава техните предварителни концепции или хипотези, без значение дали е вярна [1]. В същото време хората имат склонността да отхвърлят всяка друга информация, която противоречи на утвърдените им вече вярвания и убеждения. Поради това събирането на информация или припомнянето ѝ става избирателно, а интерпретацията ѝ зависи от личните предпочитания и склонности на човека. Този тип когнитивна заблуда е една от най-разпространените сред хората и може да бъде изключително опасна при провеждането на научни изследвания или при тълкуването на резултатите от тях заради опасността да се създадат и разпространят теории, основани на недостатъчно или противоречиви доказателства [2].

Пристрастното търсене, интерпретиране и запаметяване на информация служи като обяснение за [2]:

1⃣поляризацията на нагласите (когато хора с различни гледни точки изострят несъгласията си, въпреки че боравят с едни и същи доказателства);

2⃣постоянството на вярванията (когато продължава да се вярва в нещо, за чиято неистинност са представени доказателства);

3⃣ирационалния ефект на първенството (когато повече доверие се дава на тази информация, която се е появила първа);

4⃣илюзорната корелация (когато погрешно две събития или ситуации се свързват като причина и следствие).

👉ПРИМЕР [3]:

Едно от най-известните изследвания върху склонността за потвърждаване се провежда в Стандфордския университет. Учените изследват две групи студенти с различаващи се мнения относно смъртното наказание – половината студенти са подкрепяли смъртните присъди, а другата половина – не. На вниманието на двете групи се предлагат две изследвания – едното, подкрепящо аргументите на смъртното наказание, а другото – поставящо ги под въпрос. И двете изследвания са били „фалшиви“ и са предоставяли еднакво убедителни статистики за всяко от противоположните убеждения на групите.

🔈Резултати от изследването:

Групата студенти, подкрепящи смъртното наказание, оценяват с много високо доверие изследването, защитаващо техните вярвания, и отхвърлят другото изследване, неподкрепящо тезата им, наричайки го „неубедително“. От своя стряна, втората изследвана група прави същото.

В края на експеримента студентите отново били попитани за техните гледни точки. Тези, които са започнали изследването с убеждения, подкрепящи смърните присъди, завършили експеримента с още по-силни убеждения в полза на такъв тип наказание. След експеримента мнението на другата група също се оказало още по-твърдо, но в обратната посока – срещу смъртното наказание.

Други популярни примери, които много силно се влияят от склонността за потвърждаване:

1⃣вярването в зодиите и предсказанията – търсим допир с всички предсказания и отдаваме значение на тези, които ‘уцелят’;

2⃣вярването в лошия късмет на петък 13-ти – виждаме негативните случки и игнорираме позитивните;

3⃣вярата в ефективността на неефективни терапии – когато след терапията има подобрение се отдава на лечението, когато няма подобрение – на други фактори.

Как да се предпазим от „склонността за потвърждаване”⁉

Най-добрият начин да не попадаме в капана на “склонността за потвърждаване” е просто да погледнем и поразсъждаваме и от другата гледна точка. Иначе казано – да се опитаме да дадем шанс на противоположната информация и да бъдем отворени за възможността в крайна сметка да възприемем нея. Ако това е трудно, то тогава можем да се обърнем към някой друг, който да ни представи и обясни различаващото се мнение или позиция [4].

Ако изходът от тази когнитивна заблуда може да се опише в едно изречение, то то ще бъде: „Не трябва да отговаряме на възникнал въпрос или проблем, както и да заемаме страна, преди да сме проучили всички гледни точки.” [4]

И най-важното – трябва да се опитваме да не влагаме емоции в преценките си. Емоционалното въвличане в проблем или ситуация пречи на рационалното ни мислене, затруднява правилната ориентация и обективното оценяване на действителното положение.

Източници:

[1] “Когнитивни предразположения към грешки.” Статия за когнитивните заблуди. Webfocus.bg, [online] <http://www.webfocus.bg/fman/cognitive-biases/>

[2] “Склонност за пoтвърждаване.” Wikipedia.org, [online] <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias>

[3] “Защо фактите не променят мнението ни.” Newyorker.com, [online] <http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds>

[4] “Склонност за потвърждаване – Дефиниции, примери и съвети за избягване”. Видео на Practical Psychology, [online] <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTItO4oUi_w>


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